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IEA: Power-sector emissions hit record high in 2022
The International Energy Agency estimates that emissions from the power sector reached 13.2 metric gigatons in 2022, eclipsing the previous high of about 13 metric gigatons set in 2021.
CLIMATEWIRE | Carbon emissions from worldwide electricity generation hit a record high last year, according to new research from the International Energy Agency.
The Paris-based organization estimated that emissions from the power sector reached 13.2 metric gigatons in 2022, eclipsing the previous high of about 13 metric gigatons set in 2021. In a report released Tuesday, IEA pinned much of the blame on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which scrambled the global energy sector and compelled Europe to use more coal power — making its grid more carbon-intensive.
“It is worrying, but at the same time we consider this to be temporary,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA director for energy markets and security, said during a press webinar.
Annual emissions from power plants are projected to plateau between 2022 and 2025, as major economies adopt more renewable energy sources. IEA estimated that 90 percent of new electricity demand over the next three years would be met with climate-friendly forms of power such as solar, wind and nuclear.
The projected flattening of global emissions from the power sector follows years of record-breaking growth, and it offers some hope the world is starting to get a handle on carbon pollution from electricity generation.
The ascension of these new power sources comes as energy consumption is expected to grow in India, China and Southeast Asia. According to IEA projections, those areas will take up more than 70 percent of the growth in energy demand over the next three years.
From 2023 to 2025, China's growth in renewable capability will account for more than 45 percent of the global growth in zero-emissions power sources, IEA said. Meanwhile, India is projected to grow its nuclear power generation capabilities by 81 percent.
Elsewhere, an increase in coal and gas usage in the Middle East and Asia Pacific is expected to offset emissions decreases in the United States and especially Europe, where emissions are expected to drop 10 percent annually through 2025.
The agency’s latest predictions mean the global power sector likely would not meet IEA’s 2025 target for reducing emissions. Its 2021 scenario sets the 2025 emissions target from electricity and heating at 10.8 metric gigatons of CO2 — well below the 13.2 metric gigatons the world hit in 2022.
Based on its findings, IEA advised against completely phasing out coal and gas power plants in the near term to ensure grid reliability. Electricity generated from clean energy sources such as wind and solar could vary greatly depending on weather conditions, and “having sufficient dispatchable capacity will be crucial,” the report notes.
“For this kind of decarbonized systems, it is very important to make wise use of existing assets,” Sadamori said. “If we continue to keep some coal-fired power plants for the security of supply in case of emergency, then it can provide the additional capacity and the flexibility, while it doesn't mean that it'll lead to much larger amount of CO2 emissions.”
Samadori cited Germany as an example. The country quickly pivoted back to existing coal power plants to fill in the gaps from reduced natural gas supply, while investing heavily in renewable energy sources that would replace high-emission sources in the long run, he said.
The recent energy crisis also opened the door for nuclear power as a low-emission electricity source, the report adds. By 2025, new nuclear generators around the globe are expected to create 100 terawatt-hours of additional electricity, which is equivalent to about an eighth of what all U.S. nuclear plants produce today.
