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AROUND THE WORLD
PUTIN’S POKER FACE — As Ukrainian forces have regained territory from Russians in recent weeks, Putin has turned to nuclear saber-rattling. His threats have experts nervous, as his unlawful annexation of four states in southern Ukraine could serve as a pretext to using nuclear weapons in the name of self-defense.
The Russians have hundreds of “tactical” nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield, as opposed to “strategic” nukes targeting large population centers. POLITICO’s Minho Kim spoke with Melanie Sisson, an expert in deterrence theory at the Brookings Institute, on why Putin’s nuclear blackmail is significant and what the U.S. can do to stop him. This conversation has been edited.
How does Russia’s possession of tactical nukes complicate the military calculations in Ukraine? What strategic objectives could Putin achieve with those weapons?
The concerns are twofold. First, Putin’s power is in a more precarious position than ever before. If the survival of the Putin regime depends upon not losing in Ukraine, Putin might be willing to deploy any weapon at his arsenal. He might escalate to create fractures within the alliance and make the West question any ongoing support. Even if tactical nuclear weapons don’t change the course of a specific battle, they could be used to make the Ukrainians so fearful of what Putin might do next that they would be willing to negotiate out a very unfavorable settlement with Russia.
Is Putin trying to achieve what the U.S. achieved right before the Japanese surrender of 1945?
Yes. Putin’s statement derives that the U.S. has set the “precedent.” To be clear, there exists a very different historical context, but Putin might be receiving [Hiroshima and Nagasaki] as a historical correlate.
How likely is Putin to push the button in the weeks to come?
There are still tools at Putin’s disposal that don’t suggest that the obvious next thing is to use a nuclear weapon. Putin still has time on his side. He’s calling up some conscripts, thinking that they can hold the line long enough for real hardship to set in during the winter months and create a long-term conflict that will fracture the Western support of Ukraine. And it’s worth highlighting Ukrainians have been very direct in saying that they will continue their efforts, even if Putin were to use a nuclear weapon. [Nukes] might not motivate Ukrainians to come to the negotiating table in the way that Putin might think.
What should the U.S. do to deter Putin?
The United States military is enormously capable. There’s a menu that is longer than the eyes can see. What I discourage is to look at that menu and pick the things that we believe are proportional to his offense. Instead, we really need to be thinking about the things he cares about. Who is Vladimir Putin? What does he personally care about that we can hold at risk? What are tools that communicate very clearly to Putin that he’s going to suffer great consequences, if he behaves badly? It’s about focusing properly on the things that motivate Putin and change his mind. Because ultimately, he gets the final say.
